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Impacts of long-term climate variability and climate change on flood frequency : Susannah Brook, Western Australia

Identifieur interne : 00A589 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 00A588; suivant : 00A590

Impacts of long-term climate variability and climate change on flood frequency : Susannah Brook, Western Australia

Auteurs : Jos Samuel [Australie] ; Murugesu Sivapalan [Australie] ; Stewart W. Franks [Australie]

Source :

RBID : Pascal:05-0298986

Descripteurs français

English descriptors

Abstract

In this paper we investigate the propagation of long-term climate variabilities and climate changes through a catchment system to the flood frequency curve, through the use of a rainfall-runoff model that captures rainfall and water balance variability at a multiplicity of time scales, ranging from event to seasonal, inter-annual and inter-decadal time scales. This modelling investigation is carried out in the Susannah Brook catchment, Western Australia. Analysis of the results shows that, for example, a 10-year flood may change over to a 15-year flood over the next 50 years, due to a possible declining rainfall trend. Similarly, the 25-year flood may become a 40-year flood over the same period. These results suggest that engineers will need to come up with creative changes to traditional flood frequency estimation procedures to deal with long-term climate variability and changes.


Affiliations:


Links toward previous steps (curation, corpus...)


Le document en format XML

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<term>Western Australia</term>
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<term>drainage basins</term>
<term>floods</term>
<term>frequency</term>
<term>impacts</term>
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<term>Impact</term>
<term>Modification climat</term>
<term>Précipitation atmosphérique</term>
<term>Propagation</term>
<term>Bassin versant</term>
<term>Pluie</term>
<term>Ruissellement</term>
<term>Modèle</term>
<term>Bilan eau</term>
<term>Variation temporelle</term>
<term>Variabilité climatique</term>
<term>Bassin Susannah Brook</term>
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<div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">In this paper we investigate the propagation of long-term climate variabilities and climate changes through a catchment system to the flood frequency curve, through the use of a rainfall-runoff model that captures rainfall and water balance variability at a multiplicity of time scales, ranging from event to seasonal, inter-annual and inter-decadal time scales. This modelling investigation is carried out in the Susannah Brook catchment, Western Australia. Analysis of the results shows that, for example, a 10-year flood may change over to a 15-year flood over the next 50 years, due to a possible declining rainfall trend. Similarly, the 25-year flood may become a 40-year flood over the same period. These results suggest that engineers will need to come up with creative changes to traditional flood frequency estimation procedures to deal with long-term climate variability and changes.</div>
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   |wiki=    Wicri/Asie
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   |clé=     Pascal:05-0298986
   |texte=   Impacts of long-term climate variability and climate change on flood frequency : Susannah Brook, Western Australia
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